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13th September - The US Bond market is poised

17 September 2018





The  very long-term 10 year TNote chart remains very sobering: not only has the market broken the long run diagonal from 1999, but also the lows of 2013/14 to complete a top formation.

But the sideways price action since the beginning of 2018 may have lulled some into a sense of false security….  


If so, then the week chart is a good antidote: note the formation of a clear bear continuation triangle  -  at the likely moment of completion.

All that is required a close beneath the lower diagonal currently at 119.43 or so ( Dec 18 contract.)

If the triangle completes, a minimum measured bear move down to 116.50 looks likely. That move itself would be significant but in the context of the longer term chart, it would re-emphasise the long-term bear market.

But wait for the weekly close…  


John Lewis is recovering from an operation

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21st September - The next bull leg of US Stocks?

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24th July 2018 - will Sterling weaken further against the Euro?

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