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Copper Waiting to Break Higher

29 January 2009

Last year’s dramatic fall in Copper prices slowed towards the end of the year, finding at least a temporary base in December. Recent action has been uninspiring, but a s/term bull signal is not far off from current levels.

MONTHLY CHART – CONTINUATION: The major reversal from 427.00 May high saw the deep 76.4% retracement of the 2001-2008 upmove eroded. However, the lower 122.00 area, 1.618 swing projection off prior 238.50-427.00 upleg, is currently providing some support.

DAILY CHART – MAR-09: The s/term consolidation in Jan has now eroded the bear channel top projection – a further sign that bears are losing momentum. Near by is the 162.25 07-Jan high, and a close above this would provide a bull trigger. We would then first target towards the 217/230 area (30-Oct high/38.2% retracement). Buyers on such a break will now favour initial stops below the prior correction low at the time (currently 137.30). The analysis goes awry on a drop below the 125.50 Dec low.

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