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CRB Index in Position to Give Bull Signal Soon

09 April 2009

The collapse in the CRB Index from a peak last Jul notably slowed over the last weeks/months. There have been very s/term bullish signs but we are still waiting for a more convincing signal that prices have turned a corner – this corner is nearby.

WEEKLY CHART – CONTINUATION: The downtrend has slowed. After the required bull signal (see below) we may target the 23.6% 265 area initially.

DAILY CHART: The break above resistance in the 213.00, and hold above here, is a s/term bull sign. But in the Commodity Trading Guide we have been waiting for a close above the bear channel top projection, currently running through 234.00, for a bull trigger. A close above the higher 244.31 06-Jan high would be further bullish confirmation - we could then start looking at part-retracement levels. Ideally the 213.34 26-Feb high will remain intact in order to preserve s/term bull momentum. Note that we are looking at similar channels on the Oil charts (although we have already adopted a bull stance in the latter).

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