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EUA Carbon Emissions – How Far for the Bears?

24 September 2009

Since we introduced the EUA contract to the Commodity Specialist Guide in July the market has been recovering towards its May peak of 16.00. However, recently a clear break of uptrend has favoured the bears, but key support may not be far off.

WEEKLY CHART - CONTINUATION:
The 38.2% recovery level has proved a tough hurdle to pass, and remains first key resistance on this long term chart.
However, we think that shorter term weakness will prove temporary and we have identified two key support areas – see below.

DAILY CHART – DEC-09:
The break of uptrend and small channel base were clear bear signals – currently s/term rallies are still viewed as temporary.
A close below the old 13.00 38.2% pullback level will be the next bear sign, but the first of two key supports then lies not far away – the 12.00 area which encompasses the 50% pullback, bear channel base projection and a Fibo projection just below.
We would expect at least temporary support from this.
Lower down lays 10.22/9.93 (another Fibo projection and 76.4% level) – this becomes next bear target if the 12.00 area fails. In the Guide we have tried to sell on suitable rallies towards the 14.66 02-Sep low, but have not had the satisfaction – but currently we are still sellers on suitable rallies.

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