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Brent Crude Oil – Initial Bear Signal in Place

01 October 2009

During the summer months Brent Crude Oil bulls got a second wind, but have recently struggled near to resistance on the long term chart. An initial bear signal was given last week, and we now look for the confirming move.

The 38.2% recovery level has proved a tough hurdle to pass, and remains first key resistance on this long term chart.
The recovery from the late Dec-08 low shows signs of maturity now, so a decent pullback at this stage would not be a surprise.

The break/close below both the main rising support line and 66.66 04-Sep low was a clear bear signal.
We had thought that the dual Fibo support could prompt a s/term bounce, hence we did not want to chase the market.
In the Commodity Specialist Guide we were sellers on a bounce, at 68.75, just ahead of the old rising support/return line, with initial stops just above the 72.20 17-Sep high.
A better break of recent support, and the channel base projection just below, would be useful bear confirmation now, with 61.00 targeted for partial profits. A later target centers on the 61.8% level. The current bear signal would be negated on a recovery back through that 72.20 high.

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