Medium Term Uptrend in Crude Oil Re-established
22 October 2009
WEEKLY CHART - CONTINUATION: Earlier this year the recovery paused ahead of the 38.2% recovery level, but setbacks proved relatively modest. It has been eroded now, and the recent price swings may be viewed as what textbooks refer to as a ‘running correction' - a sign of strength. The risk is definitely to the upside now, with next focus on the 50% level on this chart. |
DAILY CHART - DEC-09: The slip back from 77.71 Aug high found effective support from our channel base projection (there was dual Fibo support here too). Subsequent strength proved more than a short-lived affair and break above 77.71 implies strength. S/term note resistance from the rising resistance line and slightly higher channel top projection around 81.00 - a pullback would not surprise from here, but the assumption is that it will be temporary and not too deep. The 72.92 17-Sep high offers support, and also note the lower 61.8% pullback level around 70.75 currently - buyers on dips will ideally favour towards this latter level, though no guarantee this will be seen. In the s/term, a break through the channel top resistance would first target towards the 85.67 area, 1.618 swing projection off prior 77.71-64.83 pullback.
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Philip Allwright
Mark Sturdy
Seven Days Ahead
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